Photovoltaic prices 2026: what are the trends for the new year?

In the last ten years, the price of solar panels has fallen regularly, contributing to the growth of residential solar and the spread of self-production. But what will the trends be for 2026? Will the costs continue to fall or will there be a turnaround?

The question is far from theoretical: panel prices represent a fundamental component of the total cost of a domestic system, influencing amortization times and potential energy savings. To orient yourself, it is therefore necessary to analyze the factors that affect price formation, the different categories of modules on the market and the industrial and European dynamics that are redefining the supply chain.

2026 photovoltaic prices: a market between a drop in demand and a reduction in supply

To interpret the possible trends of 2026, it is necessary to observe the combined impact of two main movements.

1. Chinese production is slowing down

China has been the world's leading producer of photovoltaic modules for years. Its production capacity has allowed, in the past, a sharp drop in prices thanks to the high availability of panels.

In 2024 and 2025, however, internal measures were introduced to contain the so-called overcapacity, that is, the productive excess compared to global demand. A decisive brake on production inevitably involves a reduction in the supply available on the international market.

A lower supply, under normal conditions, would tend to drive up prices.

2. European demand in decline

At the same time, the European market is experiencing a slowdown. In the domestic sector, the reduction of incentives, the end of emergency measures after the energy crisis and a more cautious transition process are reducing the demand for new plants.

The European Green Deal is also undergoing a phase of readjustment: many member states have slowed down the implementation of incentives, partly due to budgetary constraints, partly to recalibrate objectives.

An unstable balance that makes it difficult to predict the 2026 trend

The reduction in supply by China and the decline in European demand have opposite effects on prices. This is what generates, for industry analysts, a picture of strong uncertainty.

At the moment, it is not possible to predict precisely whether 2026 will be characterized by an increase or a stabilization in prices. International trade dynamics and European political choices will be decisive in the coming months.

The categories of photovoltaic panels and the reference prices

For more than ten years, a price index has been used in Europe that classifies photovoltaic modules into four main categories. Each category reflects a different technological efficiency and, consequently, a different cost.

1. High Efficiency Panels

Crystalline silicon modules with efficiency greater than 23 percent.
Average price: about 0.115 €/Wp.

2. Full black panels

Always crystalline silicon modules, characterized by a completely black homogeneous aesthetic and high performance.
Average price: about 0.13 €/Wp.

3. Mainstream panels

The most common category, with an efficiency of less than 23 percent.
Average price: about 0.10 €/Wp.

4. Low cost panels

Outdated technologies, used modules or with limited warranties.
Average price: about 0.055 €/Wp.

The gap between the first three categories is now small, while the fourth represents a choice that involves high risks from the point of view of durability and reliability.

How much does a home system cost in 2026?

Applying current price indices, a 3 kW domestic system can cost:

• more than 7,000 euros if made with high-efficiency panels
• about 4,500 euros with mainstream panels

The final value will also depend on the inverter, structure, wiring, installation and authorization practices, items that can affect up to 40 percent of the total.

European policies and their impact on prices

Another element to consider concerns the European Union's energy strategy. The reduction in incentives for domestic photovoltaic could curb demand in 2026, affecting mainly the mainstream and full black categories.

On the contrary, medium-sized and industrial plants, which mainly use high-efficiency modules, could record constant growth, supported by European directives on the decarbonization of companies and the obligation to increase self-production in the production sector.

Meanwhile, some EU countries are studying measures to encourage the purchase of modules produced in the Union, in an attempt to strengthen the European supply chain. A strategy that, in the medium term, could lead to an increase in costs compared to imported panels.

The result, even in this case, is a picture that is still undefined: falling demand, contracting supply, evolving policies.

How to protect yourself from possible price changes in 2026

Those who are considering an investment in photovoltaic energy can adopt some strategies to mitigate the risk associated with price uncertainty.

Choose solutions with fixed costs during membership

One of the most interesting options is represented by GridShare shared solar parks, models that allow you to participate in a large photovoltaic system without installing anything in your home.

Unlike the domestic plant, where the cost varies according to market trends, in shared solar parks the investment price is defined when the shares are subscribed on the equity crowdfunding platform. From that moment on, it has not changed, even if the prices of the panels were to increase in the following months.

Because this solution offers greater stability

• Large plants use high-efficiency technologies purchased through industrial contracts, less exposed to the volatility of the domestic market.
• Investors don't have to face installation, maintenance, or red tape costs.
• The yield derives from the sale of the energy produced, so the impact of fluctuating panel prices is very limited.

operators such as GridShare are developing shared solar parks in different areas of Italy, adopting regulated procedures through authorized equity crowdfunding platforms. This allows investors to join with a defined and documented cost from the start, independent of the price dynamics of the domestic photovoltaic market.

Conclusion

2026 is expected to be a year of transition for the photovoltaic panel market: slowing demand, shrinking Chinese production and redefining European policies create an uncertain environment, where price forecasts necessarily remain cautious.

In this scenario, those who want to invest in solar can evaluate alternatives that are less exposed to market fluctuations, such as shared solar parks, which offer fixed costs during the subscription phase and simple access to photovoltaic, without domestic installations and with a much lower risk related to panel prices than traditional systems.

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